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Will 2024 Be Good to the “Dogs of the Dow?”

Will 2024 Be Good to the “Dogs of the Dow?”

February 28, 2024

This simple methodology continues to captivate investors, but details matter

In the realm of investment strategies, few have garnered as much attention and loyalty as the 'Dogs of the Dow.' A simple yet intriguing concept, it has existed for decades, enticing investors with its promise of consistent returns.

Let’s talk about its history, principles, and considerations surrounding this popular investment approach, especially in the wake of a prosperous year for the Dow Jones Industrial Average in 2023 (the DJIA was up almost 14%).

History and Foundation

The Dogs of the Dow strategy finds its roots in the early 1990s, accredited to Michael O'Higgins, an esteemed finance author. The concept revolves around selecting and investing in high-dividend-yielding stocks within the 30-stock Dow Jones Industrial Average. The methodology behind this approach is straightforward: at the start of a new year, investors identify the 10 highest-yielding stocks from the Dow's thirty constituents. The idea is to allocate an equal amount of capital to each of these 10 stocks and hold onto them for the entire year. That’s it.

The underlying rationale is grounded in the premise that blue-chip companies with robust fundamentals tend to offer higher dividend yields when their stock prices are relatively low. The assumption is that these stocks, being temporarily undervalued, have the potential for capital appreciation throughout the year, hence making them favorable selections for investment.

But After a Year of Great Performance?

The question arises: is the Dogs of the Dow strategy prudent after a year of substantial growth in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, similar to what we had in 2023? Historically, the strategy has demonstrated resilience and consistency in various market conditions. However, after a bullish year for the Dow, certain considerations come into play.

Following a bullish market, some of the stocks that constituted the Dogs of the Dow might have appreciated significantly, causing a reduction in their dividend yields. Consequently, these once-high-yield stocks might no longer feature among the top 10. Investors keen on deploying this strategy post a robust market year might find themselves facing altered dynamics in stock selection.

Moreover, market conditions, economic factors, and individual stock performances significantly impact the strategy's efficacy. It is essential to conduct thorough research and analysis to ascertain the current positioning of high-dividend-yielding stocks within the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

Considerations and Caution

While the Dogs of the Dow strategy boasts a straightforward methodology and a historical track record, it is crucial to approach it with a comprehensive understanding of its limitations and risks. Past performance is not indicative of future results of course, and market dynamics can shift unexpectedly.

Economic factors, changes in interest rates, company-specific issues, and broader market trends can influence the performance of these stocks.

Additionally, the approach might entail concentrated exposure to specific sectors or industries, thereby increasing vulnerability to sector-specific risks. Diversification remains a fundamental principle in investment, and investors should exercise caution when considering a strategy that concentrates investments in a limited number of stocks.

Make Informed Investment Decisions

The Dogs of the Dow strategy, with its historical allure and simple methodology, continues to captivate investors seeking a systematic approach to investing. Its effectiveness, however, hinges on various factors, including market conditions, individual stock performances, and economic landscapes.

After a strong year for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, investors contemplating this strategy should approach it with meticulous research and adaptability. Monitoring the current dividend yields, evaluating the financial health of companies, and considering broader market trends are crucial components of implementing this approach successfully.

Ultimately, while the Dogs of the Dow strategy holds appeal for its simplicity and historical performance, prudent investors should exercise due diligence and supplement it with comprehensive market analysis to make informed investment decisions.



 

Important Disclosures

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial professional prior to investing.

Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee return or eliminate risk in all market environments.

All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, LPL Financial makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA): A price-weighted average of 30 blue-chip stocks that are generally the leaders in their industry.

This article was prepared by FMeX.

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